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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Current Odds▼ 0.2% 24h
4%YES
·
96%NO
Total Volume
$38.4M
24h Volume
$36k
Liquidity
$797k
7d Change
-0.2%
Market ends: December 31, 2026
Trade on Polymarket ↗Market Overview
Traders treat this as a longshot, with YES priced at 4%. The market has attracted substantial interest with $38.4M in total volume, backed by $797k in current liquidity. Recent whale activity includes a $30k trade — sold No. The market resolves on December 31, 2026.
Price History4% YES
Yes No
🐳 Whale Activity large moves on this market
↓89hjkNo
$30k6d ago
Top Holders largest positions on this market
$379.5k393.9k sh
$376.1k390.3k sh
$353.3k366.7k sh
$318.9k331.0k sh
$230.6k239.3k sh
$230.5k239.2k sh
$208.5k216.4k sh
$186.5k193.6k sh
$181.2k188.1k sh
$114.7k119.1k sh
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Understanding the odds
Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability of an outcome. A YES price of 4% means traders collectively assign roughly that chance to the event happening. Whale alerts flag unusually large volume moves — a signal worth investigating, not a guarantee of insider knowledge.
Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.