Blog
Guides and insights on Polymarket, prediction markets and reading the smart money.
Do Polymarket Whales Actually Win? We Checked 1,845 Wallets That Bet $25K+
We checked every Polymarket wallet that placed a $25,000+ bet since July 2026 against Polymarket’s official all-time profit and loss. 53.1% are net profitable — close to a coin flip below $250K, and 75–84% only for wallets with $500K+ bets. Corrected 4 October 2026.
September 14, 2026 · 5 min readOne Funding Wallet, Seven Whales: Tracing Polymarket’s Hidden Trading Networks
Every whale wallet looks anonymous alone. But Polymarket wallets are funded on a public blockchain, and money leaves a trail — we traced it and found a $9.89M cluster hiding behind seven separate addresses.
September 8, 2026 · 6 min readWhy the Whale Alert Can Be Gold: Reading Insider-Grade Signals on Polymarket
When someone already knows the outcome, they bet before the news breaks. We checked how the biggest wallets actually resolve — the leaders win 95% to 99% of the time.
August 2, 2026 · 6 min readDid Polymarket Beat a Simple Elo Model at the 2026 World Cup?
We scored $2.67 billion of Polymarket World Cup match prices against a plain Elo model across 101 games. Both picked the winner 62.4% of the time.
August 1, 2026 · 7 min readHow Does Polymarket Work? A Complete Beginner's Guide
Learn how Polymarket works: how prices become probabilities, how YES and NO shares trade, how markets resolve, and what to check before your first trade.
July 14, 2026 · 8 min read