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Blog
Guides and insights on Polymarket, prediction markets and reading the smart money.
Why the Whale Alert Can Be Gold: Reading Insider-Grade Signals on Polymarket
When someone already knows the outcome, they bet before the news breaks. We checked how the biggest wallets actually resolve — the leaders win 95% to 99% of the time.
August 2, 2026 · 6 min readDid Polymarket Beat a Simple Elo Model at the 2026 World Cup?
We scored $2.67 billion of Polymarket World Cup match prices against a plain Elo model across 101 games. Both picked the winner 62.4% of the time.
August 1, 2026 · 7 min readHow Does Polymarket Work? A Complete Beginner's Guide
Learn how Polymarket works: how prices become probabilities, how YES and NO shares trade, how markets resolve, and what to check before your first trade.
July 14, 2026 · 8 min read