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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Current Odds 0.2% 24h
12%YES
·
88%NO
Total Volume
$17.4M
24h Volume
$12k
Liquidity
$532k
7d Change
-0.2%
Market ends: November 7, 2028
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Market Overview

The market sees this as unlikely — YES trades at only 12%. The market has attracted substantial interest with $17.4M in total volume, backed by $532k in current liquidity. No large whale trades have been detected on this market recently. The market resolves on November 7, 2028.

Price History12% YES
0255075100Jun 14Jun 24Jul 4Jul 14
Yes No

🐳 Whale Activity large moves on this market

no whale trades detected yet

Top Holders largest positions on this market

$2.1M2.4M sh
$30.9k35.0k sh
$30.6k34.7k sh
$30.1k256.0k sh
$22.4k191.0k sh
6cqsYes
$11.8k100.0k sh
$11.2k95.0k sh
$10.7k91.2k sh
$10.6k90.4k sh
10ZptmlNo
$10.3k11.7k sh
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Understanding the odds

Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability of an outcome. A YES price of 12% means traders collectively assign roughly that chance to the event happening. Whale alerts flag unusually large volume moves — a signal worth investigating, not a guarantee of insider knowledge.

Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.