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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Current Odds 0% 24h
20%YES
·
80%NO
Total Volume
$41.6M
24h Volume
$267k
Liquidity
$468k
7d Change
+5.0%
Market ends: December 31, 2026
Trade on Polymarket ↗

Market Overview

The market sees this as unlikely — YES trades at only 20%. The market has attracted substantial interest with $41.6M in total volume, backed by $468k in current liquidity. Whale activity is notable: 5 large trades recently, the biggest being $81k selling No. Over the past week the price has climbed 5.0% and the market resolves on December 31, 2026.

Price History20% YES
0255075100Jun 15Jun 25Jul 5Jul 15
Yes No

🐳 Whale Activity large moves on this market

nojnnNo
$81k1d ago
just.some.guy.2026No
$36k5d ago
studmuffin6969No
$34k6d ago
denizzNo
$33k3d ago
eightpenguinsNo
$26k3d ago

Top Holders largest positions on this market

$724.8k900.4k sh
$382.2k474.8k sh
$348.6k433.1k sh
$300.3k373.1k sh
$227.8k283.0k sh
$206.0k1.1M sh
$159.7k819.2k sh
$137.5k170.8k sh
$120.1k149.2k sh
$119.1k148.0k sh
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Understanding the odds

Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability of an outcome. A YES price of 20% means traders collectively assign roughly that chance to the event happening. Whale alerts flag unusually large volume moves — a signal worth investigating, not a guarantee of insider knowledge.

Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.