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Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Current Odds▲ 0% 24h
54%YES
·
46%NO
Total Volume
$378k
24h Volume
$334
Liquidity
$6k
7d Change
-3.0%
Market ends: December 31, 2026
Trade on Polymarket ↗

Market Overview

This market is essentially a toss-up, with YES trading at 54%. This is a smaller market with $378k in total volume, backed by $6k in current liquidity. No large whale trades have been detected on this market recently. Over the past week the price has fallen 3.0% and the market resolves on December 31, 2026.

Price History54% YES
0255075100Jun 29Jul 9Jul 19Jul 29
Yes No

🐳 Whale Activity large moves on this market

no whale trades detected yet

Top Holders largest positions on this market

1gopfan2Yes
$49.1kto win $91.7k
2troimYes
$4.4kto win $8.2k
3Orion96Yes
$3.0kto win $5.6k
4ArmageddonRewardsBillyNo
$2.8kto win $6.0k
5MiojinhoYes
$2.7kto win $5.0k
6GollumGekkoYes
$1.2kto win $2.2k
7SweetChariotNo
$1.2kto win $2.6k
8GrokEnjoyerYes
$1.0kto win $2.0k
9ZbinikYes
$1.0kto win $1.9k
10Giannis2026Yes
$963to win $1.8k
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Related Markets

Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?0%Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?45%Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?0%Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?0%Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?1%

Understanding the odds

Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability of an outcome. A YES price of 54% means traders collectively assign roughly that chance to the event happening. Whale alerts flag unusually large volume moves — a signal worth investigating, not a guarantee of insider knowledge.

Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.