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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Brazil Presidential Election

Current Odds 0% 24h
61%YES
·
39%NO
Total Volume
$7.4M
24h Volume
$36k
Liquidity
$383k
7d Change
-1.0%
Market ends: October 4, 2026
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Market Overview

Traders lean towards YES at 61%. The market has attracted substantial interest with $7.4M in total volume, backed by $383k in current liquidity. No large whale trades have been detected on this market recently. The market resolves on October 4, 2026.

Price History61% YES
0255075100Jun 15Jun 25Jul 5Jul 15
Yes No

🐳 Whale Activity large moves on this market

no whale trades detected yet

Top Holders largest positions on this market

$791.0k2.0M sh
$420.9k695.6k sh
$132.4k218.8k sh
$68.1k112.6k sh
$59.8k98.9k sh
6abed1Yes
$47.2k78.0k sh
$42.5k70.2k sh
$38.7k63.9k sh
988865Yes
$25.1k41.5k sh
$23.7k60.0k sh
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Understanding the odds

Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability of an outcome. A YES price of 61% means traders collectively assign roughly that chance to the event happening. Whale alerts flag unusually large volume moves — a signal worth investigating, not a guarantee of insider knowledge.

Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.