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Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?

Russia nuclear test by...?

Current Odds 0.1% 24h
3%YES
·
97%NO
Total Volume
$125k
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$15k
7d Change
+0.3%
Market ends: September 30, 2026
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Market Overview

Traders treat this as a longshot, with YES priced at 3%. This is a smaller market with $125k in total volume, backed by $15k in current liquidity. No large whale trades have been detected on this market recently. The market resolves on September 30, 2026.

Price History3% YES
0255075100Jun 15Jun 25Jul 5Jul 15
Yes No

🐳 Whale Activity large moves on this market

no whale trades detected yet

Top Holders largest positions on this market

$1.6k1.6k sh
$1.4k1.5k sh
$1.4k1.5k sh
$865895 sh
$772799 sh
$689713 sh
$206213 sh
$180186 sh
$145150 sh
$97100 sh
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Understanding the odds

Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability of an outcome. A YES price of 3% means traders collectively assign roughly that chance to the event happening. Whale alerts flag unusually large volume moves — a signal worth investigating, not a guarantee of insider knowledge.

Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.