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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Fed Decision in July?

Current Odds 28.4% 24h
7%YES
·
93%NO
Total Volume
$13.3M
24h Volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$374k
7d Change
-12.3%
Market ends: July 29, 2026
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Market Overview

Traders treat this as a longshot, with YES priced at 7%, a sharp drop of 28.4% in the last 24 hours. The market has attracted substantial interest with $13.3M in total volume, backed by $374k in current liquidity. Whale activity is notable: 6 large trades recently, the biggest being $70k buying No. Over the past week the price has fallen 12.3% and the market resolves on July 29, 2026.

Price History7% YES
0255075100Jun 15Jun 25Jul 5Jul 15
Yes No

🐳 Whale Activity large moves on this market

Erasmus.No
$70k19h ago
MisTKyNo
$59k19h ago
foodenjoyerNo
$33k19h ago
XAE12ArchangelNo
$32k19h ago
foodenjoyerNo
$29k19h ago
foodenjoyerNo
$26k6d ago

Top Holders largest positions on this market

$3.8M4.1M sh
$181.5k195.3k sh
$78.3k84.2k sh
$75.6k1.1M sh
$62.9k67.6k sh
$60.7k860.8k sh
$41.3k586.1k sh
$39.2k42.2k sh
$38.2k41.1k sh
$35.3k501.4k sh
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Understanding the odds

Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability of an outcome. A YES price of 7% means traders collectively assign roughly that chance to the event happening. Whale alerts flag unusually large volume moves — a signal worth investigating, not a guarantee of insider knowledge.

Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.