US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
Event Overview
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) spans 5 possible outcomes with $6.9M in combined trading volume, 3 of them still trading. The current favourite is “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?” at 51%. Whale traders moved $1.5M through this event in the last 24 hours. Prices update every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API.
Outcomes sorted by chance
🐳 Whale Activity largest trades across all outcomes
How to read a multi-outcome event
Each outcome above is its own market with its own YES price, and each price is the crowd’s estimated probability of that outcome. Because only one can happen, the percentages across all 5 outcomes add up to roughly 100%. Volume is the sum across every outcome, so it can exceed the money actually at risk — buying NO on one outcome is economically close to buying YES across the others.
Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.