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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Current Odds 1% 24h
26%YES
·
74%NO
Total Volume
$1.4M
24h Volume
$49
Liquidity
$10k
7d Change
+5.1%
Market ends: December 9, 2026
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Market Overview

Traders are skeptical, pricing YES at just 26%, down 1.0% over the last 24 hours. Total trading volume stands at $1.4M, backed by $10k in current liquidity. No large whale trades have been detected on this market recently. Over the past week the price has climbed 5.1% and the market resolves on December 9, 2026.

Price History27% YES
0255075100Jun 15Jun 25Jul 5Jul 15
Yes No

🐳 Whale Activity large moves on this market

no whale trades detected yet

Top Holders largest positions on this market

$15.1k20.5k sh
$1.2k4.8k sh
3CDAP1Yes
$9903.8k sh
$6322.4k sh
$3551.4k sh
$2661.0k sh
$215822 sh
$195745 sh
$168228 sh
$140535 sh
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Understanding the odds

Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability of an outcome. A YES price of 26% means traders collectively assign roughly that chance to the event happening. Whale alerts flag unusually large volume moves — a signal worth investigating, not a guarantee of insider knowledge.

Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.