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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Current Odds 0.3% 24h
16%YES
·
84%NO
Total Volume
$424k
24h Volume
$8
Liquidity
$13k
7d Change
+1.3%
Market ends: December 9, 2026
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Market Overview

The market sees this as unlikely — YES trades at only 16%. This is a smaller market with $424k in total volume, backed by $13k in current liquidity. No large whale trades have been detected on this market recently. The market resolves on December 9, 2026.

Price History16% YES
0255075100Jun 15Jun 25Jul 5Jul 15
Yes No

🐳 Whale Activity large moves on this market

no whale trades detected yet

Top Holders largest positions on this market

$17.2k20.5k sh
$7694.8k sh
$7304.5k sh
$6744.2k sh
$3842.4k sh
$1681.0k sh
$142169 sh
$113704 sh
$105125 sh
10AJSVNo
$8197 sh
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Understanding the odds

Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability of an outcome. A YES price of 16% means traders collectively assign roughly that chance to the event happening. Whale alerts flag unusually large volume moves — a signal worth investigating, not a guarantee of insider knowledge.

Data refreshes every 30 minutes from Polymarket’s public API. PolyPeek is an independent analytics project, not affiliated with Polymarket. Nothing on this page is financial advice.